President Ruto leads early 2027 Presidential preference at 32%,Kalonzo, Sifuna and Matiang'i trail

A new opinion poll released on 13th July 2026 shows President William Ruto as the most preferred candidate if Kenya’s presidential election were held today, with 32% of respondents saying they would vote for him. The survey places Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka second at 13%, while Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i are tied at 12% each.

The findings, from research firm Infotrak, offer the first major snapshot of voter sentiment more than a year ahead of the 2027 General Election. They also highlight how the political landscape is shaping up, with early frontrunners emerging even as most parties have not yet settled on flag bearers.

According to the Infotrak survey, if elections were conducted today, the results would be:

- President William Ruto: 32%

- Kalonzo Musyoka: 13%

- Edwin Sifuna: 12%

- Fred Matiang’i: 12%

The poll suggests a significant gap between the incumbent and his closest challengers. Ruto’s 32% puts him nearly 20 points ahead of Musyoka, and 20 points ahead of both Sifuna and Matiang’i.

The remaining percentage is distributed among other potential candidates, undecided voters, and those who said they would not vote. Researchers did not release the full list of names tested in the survey.

The poll was conducted across Kenya’s 47 counties and targeted registered voters. Infotrak noted that the margin of error and sample size were within standard industry parameters, though the exact figures were not detailed in the initial release.

For President Ruto, the 32% showing signals continued support from a significant base, despite the economic challenges and policy debates that have defined his first term.

Supporters argue that the president’s focus on agriculture, housing, digital government services, and infrastructure projects has resonated with voters who prioritize delivery over rhetoric. The administration has also been pushing the Affordable Housing Program, fertilizer subsidies, and expansion of electricity and road networks.

Political analysts say the poll reflects name recognition and incumbency advantage. As the sitting president, Ruto commands daily media coverage and has the machinery of government to roll out programs ahead of 2027. However, analysts also caution that 32% is far from the 50%+1 required to win in the first round, meaning a runoff would be likely if these numbers held.

The poll places three opposition figures in close contention for the second spot.

The Wiper party leader and former Vice President remains a consistent figure in presidential politics. He has positioned himself as a voice for dialogue and inclusivity, and his base in Eastern Kenya continues to give him national relevance. At 13%, he leads the pack of challengers but still trails the president by a wide margin.

The Nairobi Senator and ODM Secretary General has gained national prominence through his vocal stance in Parliament and on social issues. His 12% showing suggests growing appeal beyond Nairobi, particularly among younger voters who follow his commentary on governance and accountability.

The former CS for Interior and Education is seen as a technocrat with a strong record in public service. Since leaving government, he has kept a relatively low public profile but retains goodwill among voters who associate him with firm leadership and service delivery. His tie with Sifuna indicates that the opposition vote is currently fragmented.

The near-equal standing of Sifuna and Matiang’i points to a challenge for opposition parties: without consolidation, the anti-incumbency vote could be split, making it harder to mount a unified challenge in 2027.

With the election still 18 months away, the poll is best understood as a temperature check rather than a prediction. Kenyan voters have a history of shifting preferences in the final months before an election, influenced by campaigns, alliances, economic conditions, and new entrants.

The poll has already sparked discussion online and within political circles. The post announcing the findings drew 1.9K reactions, 716 comments, and 16 shares within hours, reflecting high public interest.

Supporters of the president pointed to the 32% as evidence that Kenyans appreciate ongoing development projects. Critics argued that early polls are not reliable and that voter anger over economic issues could erode support.

For Kalonzo, the 13% showing reinforces his position as a senior opposition figure, but also raises questions about whether he can expand beyond his traditional base. For Sifuna, the result is a boost in national profile. For Matiang’i, it suggests that a return to elective politics could be viable.

Party strategists are expected to study the data closely. For Kenya Kwanza, the message is to consolidate the base and reach out to undecided voters. For opposition parties, the priority will be negotiations to avoid splitting the vote.

Pollsters and political scientists caution against reading too much into surveys conducted this far from an election.

First, candidate lineups are not yet final. More names could enter the race, and alliances could change the dynamics entirely.

Second, voter turnout is unpredictable. The 2022 election saw high turnout in some regions and low turnout in others, which ultimately decided the outcome.

Third, issues change. Between now and 2027, new scandals, policy successes, or global events could shift priorities.

Infotrak itself has noted in previous releases that early polls measure name recognition and current mood, not final outcomes.

Kenya’s next presidential election is scheduled for August 2027. By law, the campaign period will begin months before, but political positioning has already started.

For President Ruto, the task is to convert the 32% into a winning coalition by delivering on campaign promises and maintaining party unity. For the opposition, the challenge is to find a formula that brings together Kalonzo, Sifuna, Matiang’i and other leaders under one banner.

Civil society groups have also called for issue-based campaigns, urging candidates to focus on policy rather than ethnic arithmetic. Voter education organizations say they will intensify efforts to ensure Kenyans understand their rights and the electoral process.

The July 2026 Infotrak poll paints an early picture of the 2027 presidential race: President William Ruto leading with 32%, followed by Kalonzo Musyoka at 13%, and Edwin Sifuna and Fred Matiang’i tied at 12% each.

The numbers give Ruto an early advantage, but they also show a competitive field where no challenger has yet broken out. With more than a year to go, alliances, economic performance, and campaign strategy will all play a role in reshaping these figures.

For voters, the poll is a reminder that 2027 planning is already underway. For politicians, it is a signal to start building coalitions, sharpening messages, and listening to the issues that matter most to Kenyans.

As one political analyst put it: “This is where we are today. Where we end up in 2027 will depend on what happens between now and then.”